Why A "Blue Wave" is Unlikely in 2018




In America, we keep hearing about a "blue wave" coming this Fall, a term used to suggest the Democratic Party (whose color is blue) taking the House of Representatives from the Republican Party (whose color is red).  

Despite the attention this idea is getting, historically, during the first term of any new president, it is common for the opposing party to win seats and dominate the first midterm election. This is not a new phenomenon. 

Yet, it stands to reason that all of this hype about a "blue wave" coming this fall is nothing more than posturing. It's like a bully on a playground that talks a good game, but once you punch them in the nose they run home crying to mommy (a term we are still allowed to use in the United States).

Because, as poll numbers show, Democrats have not only lost their lead to Republicans in their prospects for taking over the House, they are actually being projected to lose. 

New surveys from Axios show that if the midterm election were held today, Democrats would have some major losses.

Jon Tester (D-Montana), Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia), Joe Donnelly (D-Indiana), Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-North Dakota) are all trailing Republicans and would lose, if the election were held today.

In the Senate Republicans currently only hold a 51-49 advantage, but only have to defend five seats in the midterms, as 26 seats up for grabs belong to Democrats.

The survey also shows that in six of the 10 states with seats up for grabs, President Trump's approval rating is higher than his national rating. So, for Democrats that have been saying this election is going to be a referendum on President Trump, this is a harbinger of doom for the left.

But, surveys and poll numbers shouldn't be the only thing about which Democrats are worried. 

New investigations have been launched into the activities of prominent figures from the Obama administration, in relation to potential illegal activity that occurred during the run up to the 2016 presidential election.  

Congress just submitted criminal referrals for James Comey, Loretta Lynch, Hillary Clinton, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, for charges including (but not limited to): obstruction, perjury, corruption, stealing public property or records, false statements, donations by foreign nationals and corruption.

Considering much of the alleged criminal activity is documented, as these cases proceed it is reasonable to expect public support to continue to erode for Democrats. Far-leftists will likely remain party loyalists, but anyone remotely center-left will likely move right and not vote for candidates and a party that is embroiled in such illegal activity. 

The Russia investigation has lost almost all of its steam and shouldn't negatively impact Republicans, as there still has been no proof of collusion, the only charges that have been brought were for process crimes, Rod Rosenstein himself said the President is not a target of the investigation and Robert Mueller revealed that Russia actually worked to undermine all candidates, not support Donald Trump.

This year has already seen some unexpected developments and we should certainly expect more. 

But, a "blue wave" in November is not likely to be one of them.



Comments

  1. Great piece.
    It's weird for us following US politics from here in New Zealand because the centre-right party (National) is blue and the lefties (Labour, currently in power after the popular leader of National resigned after 3 terms) are red.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment